Uqoqosho lwehlabathi lujongene nokuguquguquka okukhulu kakhulu kwecandelo lobonelelo lwempahla kwixesha elidlulileyo.
Imibutho emele amashishini e-inki yokushicilela kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zaseYurophu ichaze imeko enobungozi neyingxaki yemicimbi yothungelwano lokubonelela eli candelo lijongene nayo njengoko lingena kunyaka ka-2022.
IUmbutho we-European Printing Ink Association (EuPIA)igxininise into yokuba ubhubhane we-coronavirus udale iimeko ezifanayo nezifunekayo ukuze kubekho isiphepho esigqibeleleyo. Ukuhlanganiswa kwezinto ezahlukeneyo ngoku kubonakala ngathi kuyichaphazela kakhulu yonke ikhonkco lokubonelela.
Uninzi lweengcali zezoqoqosho kunye neengcali zecandelo lokubonelela ngempahla zinombono wokuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi lujongene nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwecandelo lokubonelela ngempahla kwixesha lakutshanje. Imfuno yeemveliso iyaqhubeka idlula ukunikezelwa kwayo, kwaye ngenxa yoko, ukufumaneka kwezinto ezikrwada zehlabathi kunye nokufumaneka kwempahla kuye kwachaphazeleka kakhulu.
Le meko, eqhutywa lubhubhane lwehlabathi oluqhubeka nokubangela ukuvalwa kwemveliso kumazwe amaninzi, yaqala yanda ngenxa yokuba abathengi abaya ekhaya bathenga izinto ezininzi kunesiqhelo kwaye ngaphandle kwexesha lonyaka elixakekileyo. Okwesibini, ukuvuselelwa koqoqosho lwehlabathi ngokubanzi ngexesha elinye kwihlabathi liphela kwabangela ukunyuka okukhulu kwemfuno.
Iingxaki zobonelelo eziphazamisayo ezivela ngokuthe ngqo kwiimfuno zokuhlukaniswa kwabantu ngenxa yobhubhane kunye nokunqongophala kwabasebenzi kunye nabaqhubi nazo zidale ubunzima, ngelixa eTshayina, ukwehla kwemveliso ngenxa yeNkqubo yokunciphisa amandla yaseTshayina, kunye nokunqongophala kwezinto ezibalulekileyo kwenze iintloko zoshishino zaba mandundu ngakumbi.
Iingxaki Eziphambili
Kubavelisi be-inki yokuprinta kunye neengubo, ukunqongophala kwezothutho kunye nezinto eziluhlaza kubangela imingeni eyahlukeneyo, njengoko kuchaziwe ngezantsi:
• _x0007_Ukungalingani kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yezinto ezininzi ezibalulekileyo ezisetyenziswa ekuveliseni i-inki zokuprinta—umz. iioyile zemifuno kunye nezinto eziphuma kuzo, iikhemikhali zepetrochemicals, ii-pigment kunye neTiO2—zibangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwiinkampani ezingamalungu e-EuPIA. Izixhobo kuzo zonke ezi ndidi, ngokwahlukileyo, zibona ukwanda kwemfuno ngelixa ukunikezelwa kuqhubeka nokuthintelwa. Ukuguquguquka kwemfuno kwezo ndawo zishiyekileyo kukhokelele ekwandeni kobunzima kubuchule babathengisi bokuqikelela nokucwangcisa ukuthunyelwa.
• _x0007_Iipigments, kuquka neTiO2, ziye zanda kutshanje ngenxa yokwanda kwemfuno kunye nokuvalwa kwefektri eTshayina okubangelwe yiNkqubo yokunciphisa amandla yaseTshayina. I-TiO2 iye yanda imfuno yokuveliswa kwepeyinti yoyilo lwezakhiwo (njengoko icandelo le-DIY lehlabathi liphela liye landa kakhulu ngokusekelwe kubathengi abahlala emakhaya) kunye nemveliso ye-wind turbine.
• _x0007_Ukunikezelwa kweeoyile zemifuno yendalo kuye kwachaphazeleka yimozulu embi eMelika naseLatin America. Okubuhlungu kukuba, oku kuhambelane nokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe eTshayina kunye nokusetyenziswa kolu didi lwezinto ezikrwada kuye kwanda.
• _x0007_Iikhemikhali zepetroli—ezinyangekayo nge-UV, i-polyurethane kunye ne-acrylic resins kunye nezinyibilikisi—ziye zenyuka ngexabiso ukusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2020, ezinye zezi zinto zineemfuno ezikhulayo ezidlula amanqanaba alindelekileyo. Ngaphezu koko, ishishini libone iziganeko ezininzi ze-force majeure eziye zanciphisa unikezelo kwaye zenza imeko ibe mandundu.
Njengoko iindleko ziqhubeka zisanda kwaye ukunikezelwa kwezinto kuqhubeka kuqina, abavelisi be-inki yokuprinta kunye ne-coating bonke bachatshazelwa kakhulu lukhuphiswano olukhulu lwezixhobo kunye nezixhobo.
Nangona kunjalo, imingeni ejongene neli shishini ayipheleli nje kwizinto ezisetyenziswa ngamakhemikhali namayeza e-petrochemical. Ezinye iinkalo zoshishino ezifana nokupakisha, ukuthutha impahla kunye nokuthutha impahla nazo zijongene nobunzima.
• _x0007_Ishishini liyaqhubeka nokujongana nokunqongophala kwentsimbi yeedrama kunye nee-HDPE feedstocks ezisetyenziselwa iipail kunye neejagi. Ukwanda kwemfuno kurhwebo lwe-intanethi kubangela ubuninzi beebhokisi ezirhabaxa kunye nee-inserts. Ukwabiwa kwezinto, ukulibaziseka kwemveliso, ii-feedstock, i-force majeures kunye nokunqongophala kwabasebenzi konke oku kunegalelo ekwandeni kokupakisha. Amanqanaba angaqhelekanga emfuno ayaqhubeka nokugqitha ukunikezelwa.
• _x0007_Ubhubhane ubangele umsebenzi ongaqhelekanga wokuthenga abathengi (ngexesha nasemva kokuvalwa), nto leyo ebangele imfuno engaqhelekanga kumashishini amaninzi kwaye inciphisa umthamo wokuthutha impahla emoyeni naselwandle. Iindleko zepetroli zeJet zinyukile kunye neendleko zokuthumela iikhonteyina (kwezinye iindlela ukusuka eAsia-Pacific ukuya eYurophu kunye/okanye e-USA, iindleko zeekhonteyina zinyuke ngokuphindwe ka-8-10 kunesiqhelo). Kuvele iishedyuli ezingaqhelekanga zokuthutha impahla elwandle, kwaye abathwali bempahla baxinezelekile okanye bajongene nomngeni wokufumana amazibuko okuthumela iikhonteyina. Ukudibana kwemfuno eyongeziweyo kunye neenkonzo zothutho ezingalungiselelwanga kakuhle kukhokelele ekunqongophaleni okukhulu komthamo wokuthutha impahla.
• _x0007_Ngenxa yeemeko zobhubhane, amanyathelo angqongqo ezempilo nokhuseleko ayasebenza kumazibuko ehlabathi, nto leyo echaphazela umthamo wezibuko kunye nomthamo wazo. Uninzi lweenqanawa zokuthutha imithwalo zaselwandle azifiki ngamaxesha azo okufika acwangcisiweyo, kwaye iinqanawa ezingafiki ngexesha ziba nokulibaziseka njengoko zilinde ukuvula iindawo ezintsha. Oku kube negalelo ekwandeni kweendleko zokuthumela ukusukela ekwindla ka-2020.
• _x0007_Kukho ukunqongophala okukhulu kwabaqhubi beelori kwiindawo ezininzi kodwa oku kuye kwabonakala kakhulu kulo lonke elaseYurophu. Nangona oku kunqongophala kungeyonto intsha kwaye kube yinto exhalabisayo ubuncinane iminyaka eli-15, kuye kwanda ngenxa yobhubhane wehlabathi.
Okwangoku, olunye unxibelelwano lwakutshanje oluvela kwiBritish Coatings Federation lubonise ukuba ekuqaleni kwekwindla ka-2021, bekukho ukunyuka okutsha kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza ezichaphazela amacandelo epeyinti kunye ne-inki yokushicilela e-UK, nto leyo ethetha ukuba abavelisi ngoku bajongene noxinzelelo olukhulu lweendleko. Ekubeni izinto eziluhlaza zibiza malunga ne-50% yazo zonke iindleko kushishino, kwaye nezinye iindleko ezifana namandla nazo zisanda ngokukhawuleza, impembelelo kwicandelo ayinakugqithiswa.
Amaxabiso eoyile ngoku aphindwe kabini kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezidlulileyo kwaye anyuke ngama-250% kwinqanaba eliphantsi langaphambi kobhubhane kaMatshi 2020, ngaphezu kokunyuka okukhulu okubonwe ngexesha lengxaki yexabiso leoyile ekhokelwa yi-OPEC ka-1973/4 kwaye kutshanje ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okubukhali kubikwe ngo-2007 nango-2008 njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi lusiya kwingxaki yoqoqosho. Nge-US$83/barrel, amaxabiso eoyile ekuqaleni kukaNovemba anyuke ukusuka kumndilili we-US$42 ngoSeptemba kunyaka ophelileyo.
Impembelelo kwiShishini le-Ink
Impembelelo kubavelisi be-inki yepeyinti kunye nokushicilela ngokucacileyo imbi kakhulu njengoko amaxabiso esinyibilikisi ngoku ephezulu ngama-82% ngokomndilili kunonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye iiresini kunye nezinto ezinxulumene nazo zibona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngama-36%.
Amaxabiso ezinyibilikisi ezininzi ezibalulekileyo ezisetyenziswa lishishini aphindaphindwe kabini kwaye aphindaphindwe kathathu, imizekelo ephawulekayo yi-n-butanol enyuke ukusuka kwi-£750 ngetoni ukuya kwi-£2,560 ngonyaka. I-n-butyl acetate, i-methoxypropanol kunye ne-methoxypropyl acetate nazo zibone amaxabiso ephindaphindwe kabini okanye kathathu.
Amaxabiso aphezulu abonwe nakwiiresini kunye nezinto ezinxulumene noko, umzekelo, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lesisombululo se-epoxy resin linyuke nge-124% ngoSeptemba 2021 xa kuthelekiswa noSeptemba 2020.
Kwezinye iindawo, amaxabiso amaninzi e-pigment nawo ayephezulu kakhulu, amaxabiso e-TiO2 enyuke nge-9% kunangonyaka ophelileyo. Kwiiphakheji, amaxabiso ayephezulu kuyo yonke indawo, umzekelo, iitini ezijikelezileyo zeelitha ezintlanu zenyuke nge-10% kwaye amaxabiso eedramu enyuke ngama-40% ngo-Okthobha.
Kunzima ukufumana uqikelelo oluthembekileyo kodwa njengoko uninzi lwee-arhente ezinkulu zokuqikelela zilindele ukuba amaxabiso eoyile ahlale engaphezulu kwe-US$70/ibhareli ngo-2022, iimpawu zibonisa ukuba iindleko eziphezulu azisekho.
Amaxabiso eoyile aya kuba phakathi ngo-'22
Okwangoku, ngokutsho kwe-Energy Information Administration (EIA) ese-US, i-Short-Term Energy Outlook yayo yakutshanje ibonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwemveliso yeoyile ekrwada kunye neemveliso zepetroleum ezivela kumazwe e-OPEC+ kunye ne-USA kuya kukhokelela ekubeni uluhlu lwamafutha oluyilwelo lwehlabathi lunyuke kwaye amaxabiso eoyile ekrwada ehle ngo-2022.
Ukusetyenziswa kweoyile ekrwada kwihlabathi liphela kudlule imveliso yeoyile ekrwada kwiikota ezintlanu ezilandelelanayo, ukususela kwikota yesithathu ka-2020. Ngeli xesha, uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zeoyile kumazwe e-OECD lwehle ngeebhareli ezingama-424 ezigidi, okanye i-13%. Bekulindeleke ukuba imfuno yeoyile ekrwada kwihlabathi liphela iya kudlula ukunikezelwa kwehlabathi liphela ekupheleni konyaka, inegalelo kwezinye izinto ezongezelelweyo ezifunekayo, kwaye igcine ixabiso leoyile ekrwada yeBrent lingaphezulu kwe-US$80/ibhareli ukuya kutsho ngoDisemba ka-2021.
Ingqikelelo ye-EIA kukuba uluhlu lweoyile lwehlabathi luza kuqala ukwakhiwa ngo-2022, luqhutywa kukunyuka kwemveliso evela kumazwe e-OPEC+ kunye ne-USA kodwa ngokukhula okucothayo kwemfuno yeoyile yehlabathi.
Olu tshintsho lunokuthi lubeke uxinzelelo oluphantsi kwixabiso leBrent, eliya kuba ngumyinge we-US$72 ngomgqomo ngexesha lika-2022.
Amaxabiso eBrent, i-oyile ekrwada yamazwe ngamazwe, kunye neWest Texas Intermediate (WTI), i-oyile ekrwada yaseMelika, anyukile ukusukela oko aphantsi ngo-Epreli 2020 kwaye ngoku angaphezulu kwamanqanaba angaphambi kobhubhane.
Ngo-Okthobha ka-2021, ixabiso le-oyile eluhlaza yeBrent laliyi-US$84/barrel, kwaye ixabiso le-WTI laliyi-US$81/barrel, amaxabiso aphantsi kakhulu ukusukela ngo-Okthobha ka-2014. I-EIA iqikelela ukuba ixabiso le-Brent liza kuhla ukusuka kumyinge we-US$84/barrel ngo-Okthobha ka-2021 ukuya kwi-US$66/barrel ngoDisemba ka-2022 kwaye ixabiso le-WTI liza kuhla ukusuka kumyinge we-US$81/barrel ukuya kwi-US$62/barrel ngexesha elifanayo.
Iimpahla zeoyile ekrwada ezisezantsi, kwihlabathi liphela nase-USA, zibeke uxinzelelo lwamaxabiso aphezulu kwizivumelwano zeoyile ekrwada ezikufutshane, ngelixa amaxabiso ezivumelwano zeoyile ekrwada ezidlulileyo esezantsi, nto leyo ebonisa ulindelo lwemarike elungeleleneyo ngo-2022.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Oktobha-31-2022
