ESOKUQALA KUNYE nesona salathisi siphambili kwabo bavavanyayo amathuba ngabantu, nto leyo emisela ubungakanani bemalike efikelelekayo (TAM). Kungenxa yoko le nto iinkampani ziye zatsalwa eTshayina nakubo bonke abo bathengi.
Ukongeza kubungakanani obukhulu, ukubunjwa kweminyaka yabemi, ingeniso kunye nophuhliso lweemarike zokusetyenziswa kokuphela komlambo ezihlala ixesha elide nezingaphelelwayo, kunye nezinye izinto ezichaphazela imfuno yeplastiki yentlaka.
Kodwa ekugqibeleni, emva kokuvavanya zonke ezi zinto, enyewahlula imfuno ngokwabemi ukubalaimfuno yomntu ngamnye, inani eliphambili lokuthelekisa iimarike ezahlukeneyo.
Iidemographers ziqalisile ukucinga ngokutsha ukukhula kwabemi bexesha elizayo kwaye bagqiba kwelokuba abemi behlabathi baya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza nangaphantsi ngenxa yokuncipha kokuchuma e-Afrika kunye nokuchuma okuphantsi e-China kunye nezinye izizwe ezimbalwa ezinokungaze ziphinde zibuyele. Oku kunokunyusa uqikelelo lweemarike zehlabathi kunye namandla.
Abemi baseTshayina baye banda ukusuka kwi-546 yezigidi ngo-1950 ukuya kwi-1.43 yebhiliyoni esemthethweni ngo-2020. Umgaqo-nkqubo womntwana omnye wowe-1979-2015 ubangele ukuncipha kwenzala, umlinganiselo ogqwethekileyo wamadoda / amabhinqa kunye nokunyuka kwabemi, ngoku i-Indiya ithatha indawo yaseTshayina njengelona lizwe linabantu abaninzi.
IZizwe eziManyeneyo zilindele ukuba inani labantu baseTshayina liwele kwi-1.26 yezigidigidi kwi-2050 kunye ne-767 yezigidi nge-2100. Ezi ziphantsi kwe-53 yezigidi kunye ne-134 yezigidi, ngokulandelanayo, kwiingqikelelo zangaphambili ze-UN.
Uhlahlelo lwakutsha nje olwenziwe ngabademografi (iShanghai Academy of Sciences, iVictoria University yaseOstreliya, njl.njl
Imibuzo ngamanani okuzalwa
Umbhali wedemografi uYi Fuxian kwiDyunivesithi yaseWisconsin ubuze iingcinga malunga nabemi baseTshayina bangoku kunye nendlela enokwenzeka eya phambili. Uvavanye idatha yedemografi yaseTshayina kwaye wafumanisa ukungangqinelani okucacileyo nokuqhelekileyo, njengokungangqinelani phakathi kokuzalwa okuxeliweyo kunye nenani lezitofu zokugonya zabantwana ezilawulwayo kunye nokubhaliswa kwezikolo zaseprayimari.
Ezi kufuneka zihambelane, kwaye azihambi. Abahlalutyi babona ukuba kukho inkuthazo enamandla koorhulumente basekhaya ukuba bafake idatha. Ukubonakalisa iRazor ka-Occam, eyona ngcaciso ilula kukuba ukuzalwa akuzange kwenzeke.
U-Yi ubeka ukuba inani labantu base-China ngo-2020 laliyi-1.29 yeebhiliyoni, hayi i-1.42 yezigidigidi, inani elingaphantsi kwe-130 yezigidi. Imeko imbi kakhulu kumntla-mpuma we-China apho injini yezoqoqosho imile. U-Yi uqikelele ukuba ngamaqondo aphantsi okuchuma - 0.8 xa kuthelekiswa nenqanaba lokutshintsha le-2.1 - inani labantu baseTshayina liza kuwela kwi-1.10 yezigidigidi ngo-2050 kunye ne-390 yezigidi ngo-2100. Qaphela ukuba unolunye uqikelelo olungenathemba ngakumbi.
Silubonile olunye uqikelelo lokuba abantu baseTshayina banokuba ngaphantsi kwe-250 yezigidi kunoko kuxelwe ngoku. I-China ithatha malunga ne-40% yemfuno yeentlaka zeplastiki zehlabathi kwaye ngenxa yoko, elinye ixesha elizayo malunga nabemi kunye nezinye izinto ezinefuthe elibonakalayo kwiintlaka zeplastiki zehlabathi.
Imfuno ekhoyo ngoku yaseTshayina ngomntu ngamnye iphezulu xa kuthelekiswa nolona qoqosho luphucukileyo, iziphumo zomxholo weplastiki wokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwempahla egqityiweyo kunye nendima yaseTshayina “njengefektri yehlabathi”. Oku kuyatshintsha.
Ukwazisa ngeemeko
Ngale nto engqondweni, siye savavanya ezinye zeengcinga zikaYi Fuxian kwaye saphuhlisa enye imeko malunga nekamva elinokubakho lemfuno yabemi baseTshayina kunye neeplastiki. Kwisiseko sethu, sisebenzisa uqikelelo luka-2024 lwe-UN kuluntu lwaseTshayina.
Olu qikelelo lwamva nje lwe-UN lwabemi base China lwahlaziywa ukuhla ukusuka kuvavanyo lwangaphambili. Emva koko siye sasebenzisa i-ICIS Supply & Demand database yamva nje yoqikelelo ngo-2050.
Oku kubonisa iChina nge-capita enkulu i-resins imfuno - i-acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), i-polyethylene (PE), i-polypropylene (PP), i-polystyrene (PS) kunye ne-polyvinyl chloride (PVC) - inyuka ukusuka phantse i-73kg ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-144kg ngo-2050.
Sikwavavanye ixesha elisemva ko-2050 kwaye kucingelwa ukuba imfuno yeresin yomntu ngamnye iya kunyuka iye kuthi ga kwi-150kg ngo-2060s phambi kokumodareyitha ukuya ekupheleni kwenkulungwane - ukuya kwi-141kg ngo-2100 - inguqu kunye nomkhondo oqhelekileyo wokukhula koqoqosho. Umzekelo, imfuno yase-US ngomntu ngamnye kwezi resins yanyukela kwi-101kg ngo-2004.
Kwimeko engenye, sicinge ukuba abantu baka-2020 babeyi-1.42 yezigidigidi, kodwa izinga lokuchuma liya phambili liza kuba yi-0.75 yabantu abazalwayo, okukhokelela kubemi abangama-2050 be-1.15 yezigidigidi kunye ne-2100 yezigidi ezingama-373. Siyibize i-scenario Dire Demographics.
Kule meko, siye sacinga ukuba ngenxa yemingeni yezoqoqosho, imfuno ye-resin iya kuvuthwa kwangaphambili kwaye kwinqanaba eliphantsi. Oku kusekelwe ekubeni iTshayina ingaphuncuki kwimo yomvuzo ophakathi ukuya kuqoqosho oluhambele phambili.
Idemographics dynamics zibonelela ngeentloko ezininzi zoqoqosho. Kule meko, i-China iphulukana nesabelo semveliso yehlabathi ngenxa yamanyathelo okubuyisela amanye amazwe kunye nokungavisisani kwezorhwebo, okukhokelela kwimfuno ephantsi yeentyantyambo ezivela kwisiqulatho seplastiki esisezantsi - xa kuthelekiswa kwimeko yesiseko - ukuthunyelwa kweempahla ezigqityiweyo.
Sikwacinga ukuba icandelo leenkonzo liya kuzuza njengesabelo soqoqosho lwaseTshayina. Ngaphezu koko, imiba yepropathi kunye namatyala inobunzima kwi-economic dynamism ukuya kuma-2030s. Utshintsho lwezakhiwo luyaqhuba. Kule meko, silinganise imfuno yeresin yomntu ngamnye njengoko inyuka ukusuka kwi-73kg ngo-2020 ukuya kuthi ga kwi-101kg ngo-2050 kwaye inyuke kwi-104kg.
Iziphumo zeemeko
Ngaphantsi kweSiseko seSiseko, imfuno enkulu ye-resin inyuka ukusuka kwi-103.1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 kwaye iqala ukukhula kwi-2030s, ifikelele kwi-188.6 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050. Emva kwe-2050, ukuhla kwabemi kunye nokuguquka kweemarike / ukuguquguquka kwezoqoqosho kuchaphazela kakubi le mfuno ye-08 yezigidi. linqanaba elihambelana nemfuno yangaphambi ko-2020.
Ngombono ongathandekiyo wabemi kunye nokunciphisa amandla oqoqosho phantsi kwemeko ye-Dire Demographics, imfuno enkulu ye-resins inyuka ukusuka kwi-103.1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 kwaye iqala ukuvuthwa ngo-2030s, ifikelele kwi-116.2 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050.
Ngenani labantu elihlayo kunye neenguqu zezoqoqosho ezimbi, imfuno iwela kwi-38.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2100, inqanaba elihambelana nemfuno yangaphambili ka-2010.
Iimpembelelo zokuzanelisa kunye norhwebo
Kukho iimpembelelo kwiChina yeplastiki yentlaka yokuzimela kunye nentsalela yorhwebo. KwiSiseko seSiseko, imveliso ye-resin enkulu yaseTshayina inyuka ukusuka kwi-75.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-183.9 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050.
I-Base Case icebisa ukuba i-China ihleli ingumrhwebi we-resin ezinkulu, kodwa indawo yayo yokungenisa elizweni iyehla ukusuka kwi-27.4 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-4.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050.
Ngexesha elikhawulezileyo, unikezelo lweeresin luqhubela phambili njengoko bekucwangcisiwe njengoko iTshayina ijolise ekuzifumaneleni. Kodwa ngo-2030s, ukwandiswa kwamandla kuyacotha kwintengiso yehlabathi jikelele kunye nokunyuka koxinzelelo lwezorhwebo.
Ngenxa yoko, phantsi kwemeko ye-Dire Demographics, imveliso ingaphezulu kokwaneleyo kwaye ekuqaleni kweminyaka yama-2030 i-China ifumana ukuzimela kwezi resin kwaye ivela njengomthumeli ngaphandle kwe-3.6 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2035, i-7.1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2040, 9.7 yezigidi zeetoni kunye ne-501 yezigidi zeetoni ezingama-201 kwi-20.
Ngeendawo ezimanyumnyezi zamanani abantu kunye nomngeni wokutshintsha kwezoqoqosho, ukuzimela kunye nesikhundla sokuthumela ngaphandle kwesambuku kufikelelwa ngokukhawuleza kodwa "kulawulwa" ukuthomalalisa ukungavisisani kwezorhwebo.
Ewe kunjalo, siye sajonga kancinci kwidemografi, ikamva lokuchuma okuphantsi kunye nokunciphayo. "Idemographics is destiny", njengoko isithandi sobulumko saseFrentshi senkulungwane ye-19 uAuguste Comte satsho. Kodwa ikamva alimiselwanga ematyeni. Eli lelinye ikamva elinokwenzeka.
Akho amanye amakamva anokubakho, kuquka lawo apho amazinga okuchuma aphinda aphinda-phinda kunye namaza amatsha okuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe adibanayo ukuze kuphuculwe imveliso kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukukhula koqoqosho. Kodwa imeko eboniswe apha inokunceda iinkampani zeekhemikhali zicinge malunga nokungaqiniseki ngendlela ecwangcisiweyo kwaye zenze izigqibo ezichaphazela ikamva labo - ekugqibeleni babhale ibali labo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-05-2025
