ISAZISO SOKUQALA NESIPHAMBILI kwabo bavavanya amathuba linani labantu, nto leyo echaza ubungakanani bemarike iyonke enokulungiselelwa (i-TAM). Yiyo loo nto iinkampani zitsaleleke kwiTshayina nakubo bonke abo bathengi.
Ukongeza kubukhulu bayo, ubudala babantu, imivuzo kunye nophuhliso lweemarike ezisetyenziswa rhoqo nezingasetyenziswa rhoqo, kunye nezinye izinto nazo zichaphazela imfuno ye-resin yeplastiki.
Kodwa ekugqibeleni, emva kokuvavanya zonke ezi zinto, enyeyahlula imfuno ngenani labantu ukuze ibalweimfuno yomntu ngamnye, inani eliphambili lokuthelekisa iimarike ezahlukeneyo.
Iingcali zolu luntu ziqalile ukucinga ngokutsha ngokukhula kwenani labantu kwixesha elizayo kwaye zigqiba kwelokuba inani labantu emhlabeni liza kufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngokukhawuleza nangakumbi ngenxa yokuncipha kokuchuma eAfrika kunye nokuchuma okuncinci eTshayina nakwamanye amazwe ambalwa asenokungaphindi abuyele esiqhelweni. Oku kunokuphazamisa iingcamango zemarike yehlabathi kunye nokuguquguquka kwayo.
Inani labantu baseTshayina likhule ukusuka kwizigidi ezingama-546 ngo-1950 ukuya kwi-1.43 yeebhiliyoni ezisemthethweni ngo-2020. Umgaqo-nkqubo womntwana omnye ka-1979-2015 ukhokelele ekunciphiseni ukuzala, umlinganiselo wamadoda nabafazi ogoso kunye nokwanda kwabemi, apho iIndiya ngoku ithatha indawo yeTshayina njengelizwe elinabantu abaninzi.
IZizwe eziManyeneyo zilindele ukuba inani labantu baseTshayina lihle liye kwi-1.26 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2050 kunye ne-767 yezigidi ngo-2100. Aba banciphile nge-53 yezigidi kunye ne-134 yezigidi, ngokwahlukeneyo, xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lwangaphambili lwe-UN.
Uhlalutyo lwakutshanje olwenziwe ziingcali zobalo lwabantu (iShanghai Academy of Sciences, iVictoria University of Australia, njl.njl.) luyabuza ngeenkcukacha zabantu ezisekelwe kwezi ziqikelelo kwaye lulindele ukuba inani labantu baseTshayina liza kwehla liye kuthi ga kwi-1.22 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2050 kunye ne-525 yezigidi ngo-2100.
Imibuzo malunga nezibalo zokuzalwa
Ingcali yezibalo zabantu uYi Fuxian kwiYunivesithi yaseWisconsin ubuze imibuzo malunga nabantu baseTshayina abakhoyo ngoku kunye nendlela enokwenzeka yokuya phambili. Uhlolisise idatha yabantu baseTshayina waza wafumana ukungangqinelani okucacileyo nokuxhaphakileyo, njengokungangqinelani phakathi kokuzalwa okuxeliweyo kunye nenani leegonyo zabantwana ezinikwayo kunye nokubhaliswa kwabafundi kwisikolo samabanga aphantsi.
Ezi zinto mazifane, kwaye azifani. Abahlalutyi babona ukuba kukho izikhuthazo ezinamandla koorhulumente basekuhlaleni zokwandisa idatha. Xa sicinga nge-Occam's Razor, ingcaciso elula kukuba ukuzalwa akuzange kwenzeke.
UYi uthi inani labantu baseTshayina ngo-2020 laliyi-1.29 yeebhiliyoni, hayi i-1.42 yeebhiliyoni, inani elingaphantsi kwe-130 yezigidi. Le meko imbi kakhulu kumantla-mpuma eTshayina apho injini yezoqoqosho ime khona. UYi uqikelele ukuba ngamazinga aphantsi okuzala - 0.8 xa kuthelekiswa nenqanaba lokutshintshwa le-2.1 - inani labantu baseTshayina liza kwehla liye kwi-1.10 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2050 kunye ne-390 yezigidi ngo-2100. Qaphela ukuba unenye ingqikelelo engathandekiyo ngakumbi.
Sibone ezinye iingqikelelo zokuba inani labemi baseTshayina linokuba ngaphantsi ngezigidi ezingama-250 kunelo lixeliweyo ngoku. ITshayina ibandakanya malunga ne-40% yemfuno yeeresini zeplastiki zehlabathi kwaye ngenxa yoko, ezinye izinto eziza kwenzeka kwixesha elizayo malunga nabemi kunye nezinye izinto zichaphazela kakhulu amandla emfuno yeeresini zeplastiki zehlabathi.
Imfuno ye-resin ngomntu ngamnye eTshayina ngoku iphezulu xa ithelekiswa nezoqoqosho ezininzi eziphambili, oku kungenxa yobuninzi beplastiki ethunyelwa ngaphandle kunye nendima yeTshayina "njengefektri kwihlabathi". Oku kuyatshintsha.
Ukwazisa iimeko
Sicinga ngale nto, sihlolisise ezinye zeengcinga zikaYi Fuxian saza savelisa enye imeko malunga nekamva elinokubakho kwimfuno yabantu baseTshayina kunye neplastiki. Kwisiseko sethu, sisebenzisa uqikelelo lwe-UN luka-2024 malunga nabemi baseTshayina.
Olu qikelelo lwamva nje lwe-UN lwabemi baseTshayina luhlaziywe ngokwehla ukusuka kuvavanyo lwangaphambili. Emva koko sisebenzise uqikelelo lwamva nje lwedathabheyisi ye-ICIS Supply & Demand ukuya kutsho ku-2050.
Oku kubonisa ukuba imfuno ye-resin enkulu yaseTshayina ngomntu ngamnye – i-acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), i-polyethylene (PE), i-polypropylene (PP), i-polystyrene (PS) kunye ne-polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – inyuka ukusuka kwi-73kg ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-144kg ngo-2050.
Sikwahlolisise ixesha emva kowama-2050 kwaye sicinga ukuba imfuno yeeresini ngomntu ngamnye iya kunyuka iye kwi-150kg kwiminyaka yoo-2060 ngaphambi kokuba ifikelele ekupheleni kwenkulungwane - ukuya kwi-141kg ngo-2100 - utshintsho kunye nendlela eqhelekileyo yoqoqosho olukhula. Umzekelo, imfuno ye-US ngomntu ngamnye yezi resini ifikelele kwi-101kg ngo-2004.
Kwimeko eyahlukileyo, sicinge ukuba inani labemi bowama-2020 liyi-1.42 yeebhiliyoni, kodwa izinga lokuzala eliya phambili liza kuba ngumyinge we-0.75 yokuzalwa, nto leyo ebangela ukuba inani labemi bowama-2050 libe yi-1.15 yeebhiliyoni kunye nabemi abangama-2100 babe yi-373 yezigidi. Sibize le meko ngokuba yi-Dire Demographics.
Kule meko, sikwacinge ukuba ngenxa yemingeni yezoqoqosho, imfuno yeeresini iya kuvuthwa kwangoko kwaye ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphantsi. Oku kusekelwe ekubeni iTshayina ingaphunyuki kwimeko yayo yengeniso ephakathi iye kuqoqosho oluphambili.
Utshintsho lwedemokhrasi lubangela iingxaki ezininzi kwezoqoqosho. Kule meko, iTshayina ilahlekelwa yinxalenye yemveliso yehlabathi ngenxa yemizamo yokuhlaziya amanye amazwe kunye noxinzelelo lwezorhwebo, okubangela ukuba imfuno ye-resin ephantsi evela kumxholo weplastiki ophantsi - xa kuthelekiswa nesiseko - ukuthunyelwa kweempahla ezigqityiweyo ngaphandle.
Sikwacinga ukuba icandelo leenkonzo liza kuzuza njengesabelo soqoqosho lwaseTshayina. Ngaphezu koko, imiba yepropathi kunye namatyala ichaphazela ukuguquguquka koqoqosho ukuya kwiminyaka yoo-2030. Utshintsho kulwakhiwo luyaqhubeka. Kule meko, sibonise imfuno yeresin ngomntu ngamnye njengoko inyuka ukusuka kwi-73kg ngo-2020 ukuya kufikelela kwi-101kg ngo-2050 kwaye ifikelela kwi-104kg.
Iziphumo zeemeko
Phantsi kweSiseko seSiseko, imfuno ye-resin enkulu inyuka ukusuka kwi-103.1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 kwaye iqala ukuvuthwa ngeminyaka yoo-2030, ifikelela kwi-188.6 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050. Emva kowama-2050, ukuhla kwenani labemi kunye nokuguquguquka kwemarike/uqoqosho kuchaphazela kakubi imfuno, eyehla iye kwi-89.3 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2100. Eli linqanaba elihambelana nemfuno yangaphambi kowama-2020.
Ngenxa yembono engalunganga ngakumbi kubemi kunye nokwehla kwamandla oqoqosho phantsi kwemeko yeDire Demographics, imfuno enkulu yeeresini inyuka ukusuka kwi-103.1 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 kwaye iqala ukuvuthwa ngeminyaka yoo-2030, ifikelela kwi-116.2 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050.
Ngenxa yokwehla kwenani labantu kunye nokuguquguquka koqoqosho okubi, imfuno yehla iye kwi-38.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2100, inqanaba elihambelana nemfuno yangaphambi ko-2010.
Iziphumo zokuzixhasa kunye norhwebo
Kukho iziphumo zokuzinza kweeresini zeplastiki zaseTshayina kunye nebhalansi yayo yorhwebo. Kwimeko Esisiseko, imveliso enkulu yeresini yaseTshayina inyuka ukusuka kwi-75.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-183.9 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050.
I-Base Case ibonisa ukuba iTshayina isaqhubeka nokuba ngumthengisi wee-resin ezinkulu kwamanye amazwe, kodwa indawo yayo yokungenisa iimveliso ihla ukusuka kwi-27.4 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-4.7 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2050. Sigxila kuphela kwixesha ukuya kutsho ku-2050.
Ngexesha elikufutshane, ukunikezelwa kweeresini kuqhubeka kakhulu njengoko bekucwangcisiwe njengoko iTshayina ijonge ukuzimela. Kodwa ngeminyaka yoo-2030, ukwandiswa kwamandla kuyacotha kwimarike yehlabathi eneemveliso ezininzi kunye nokunyuka koxinzelelo kurhwebo.
Ngenxa yoko, phantsi kwemeko yeDire Demographics, imveliso yanele ngokwaneleyo kwaye ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-2030 iTshayina ifikelele ekuzinzeni kwezi resin kwaye ivela njengelizwe elithumela ngaphandle iitoni ezizizigidi ezi-3.6 ngo-2035, iitoni ezizizigidi ezi-7.1 ngo-2040, iitoni ezizizigidi ezi-9.7 ngo-2045 kunye neetoni ezizizigidi ezili-11.6 ngo-2050.
Ngenxa yobuninzi babantu kunye nobunzima bezoqoqosho, ukuzimela kunye nesikhundla sokuthumela ngaphandle kufikeleleka kungekudala kodwa "kulawuleka" ukunciphisa uxinzelelo kurhwebo.
Kakade ke, sijonge ngeliso elibukhali idemografi, ikamva elinokuzala okuphantsi nokuwohlokayo. “Idemografi yidestiny”, njengoko watshoyo isazinzulu saseFransi senkulungwane ye-19 uAuguste Comte. Kodwa idestiny ayimiselwanga. Eli likamva elinokwenzeka.
Kukho ezinye izinto ezinokwenzeka kwixesha elizayo, kuquka ezo apho amazinga okuzala abuyela khona kwaye amaza amatsha obuchwephesha adibana ukuphucula imveliso kunye nokukhula koqoqosho. Kodwa imeko evezwe apha inokunceda iinkampani zeekhemikhali ukuba zicinge ngokungaqiniseki ngendlela ecwangcisiweyo kwaye zenze izigqibo ezichaphazela ikamva lazo - ekugqibeleni zibhale ibali lazo.
Ixesha leposi: Julayi-05-2025
